CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2023-11-09T12:23:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2023-11-09T12:23ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27655/-1
CME Note: Halo CME visible in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The start time is based off of STEREO A COR2 imagery due to a data gap in SOHO at the time of this DONKI entry. The eruption starts around 2023-11-08T10:42Z and is primarily characterized as a broad region of dimming centered around S10W10 near AR 3480. A piece of a filament may have erupted as seen in SDO AIA 304. This CME is associated with a C2.6 flare from AR 3480 peaking at 2023-11-09T11:18Z best seen in SDO AIA 131. Dimming is visible in SDO AIA 193, post-eruptive arcades can be best seen in SDO AIA 94/193, and opening field lines are visible in SDO AIA 171. Increase in B_total from 1.8 nT to 5.12 nT, eventually reaching a maximum of 8.3 nT, accompanied by an increase in speed from 450 km/s to approx. 530 km/s, which reached a maximum of approx. 580 km/s. Rotation is also seen in the magnetic field components, and Bz reaches near -5.8 nT. Accompanied by increases in density and temperature.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-12T05:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 4.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-11T18:24Z (-6.817h, +5.9h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Ensemble WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:
Ensemble modeling estimates the spread/uncertainty in CME arrival time predictions using the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model due to uncertainties in CME input parameters. This is achieved by measuring N CME input parameters, then performing an ensemble of N runs of WSA-ENLIL cone model. This gives an ensemble of N CME arrival times and impact estimates. NASA GSFC M2M ENLIL settings: ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: low2 (256x30x90) Ambient settings: a3b1f WSA version: 2.2 (Enlil 2.7 w/res:low2 ambient:a3b1f, WSA2.2) ### Notification information (STEREO A, missions near Earth) Based on analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric ensemble modeling carried out at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CME may impact STEREO A. For 32 ensemble members (see notes section), simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach: - STEREO A between about 2023-11-11T09:08Z and 2023-11-11T21:22Z (average arrival 2023-11-11T15:43Z) for 100% of simulations. Additionally, the CME is estimated to reach NASA missions near Earth between about 2023-11-11T11:35Z and 2023-11-12T00:18Z (average arrival 2023-11-11T18:24Z) for 100% of simulations. The ensemble-based forecast indicates that there is a 93% chance for the maximum Kp index to be in the 4-6 range (below minor to moderate). Links to the ensemble details of the modeled event: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052_anim_tim-den.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052_arrival_Earth.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052_Earth_stack.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052_arrival_STA.gif https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052_STA_stack.gif ## Notes: This CME event (2023-11-09T12:23:00-CME-001) is also predicted to have an impact at OSIRIS-APEX, Psyche, Solar Orbiter, and STEREO A. The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2023-11-11T09:36Z, Psyche at 2023-11-11T22:29Z, Solar Orbiter at 2023-11-11T05:44Z, and STEREO A at 2023-11-11T17:55Z (plus minus 7 hours) based on previous heliospheric modeling (see notification 20231109-AL-002). Ensemble CME modeling at M2M is performed by building sets of initial CME parameters and carrying out separate simulations for each set. This approach allows a mapping of initial CME parameter uncertainties into a statistical characterization of CME arrival times and impact at locations of interest. Description of links: For each location, the first link shows the WSA-ENLIL+Cone model animation for the median CME input parameters, the second link shows the probabilistic distribution of predicted arrival times histogram, and the third link shows a stack plot of the WSA-ENLIL+Cone modeled magnetic field, velocity, density, and temperature for all ensemble members. For the full details of the modeled event, please go here: https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/ENSEMBLE/2023-11-09_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052/Detailed_results_20231109_122300_ncmes1_sims32_LAHAINA052.txtLead Time: 53.18 hour(s)
Difference: 11.10 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Hannah Hermann (M2M Office) on 2023-11-10T00:19Z
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